Why The Jets Will Upset The Pats

The Jets are 7-point underdogs at home against the Patriots tonight. Here are three reasons why the Jets will pull off the upset against the Pats.

1. The Jets do a good job in play calling to exploit the gaps in the Patriots zones.

Jets exploiting cover 2 zones:

There is a gap between the linebackers and the safeties in the Pats cover 2 zones. These are two examples of the Jets exploiting this gap and hitting Kerley across the middle of the field on inside post routes.

  1. http://www.screenr.com/3627.
  2. http://www.screenr.com/3i27.

There is also a gap behind the outside cornerbacks in the cover 2 zones. Stephen Hill is wide open on this play as he gets passed the outside cornerback, but Sanchez throws the ball to late: http://www.screenr.com/wi27.

The running back was also wide open in the flats because the outside cornerback leaves his flat zone assignment to cover Hill.

Jets exploiting cover 4 zones:

On cover 4 defenses, the cornerbacks play deep zones and this leaves a gap for shorter routes by the receivers. These are two examples of the Jets exploiting this gap on hook routes by Stephen Hill:

1. http://www.screenr.com/ww27.
2. http://www.screenr.com/Dw27.

2. The Jets do a good job of getting pressure on Brady.

As great as Tom Brady is, the one knock I have on him is that he does not always handle pressure well. The reason the Giants have the Pats number is because they usually get pressure on Brady. In addition, the reason the Jets lost to the Cardinals and the Seahawks this year is because both teams got pressure on Brady. I expect Rex Ryan to draw up some blitzes tonight to get Brady dancing around in the pocket. Here are two examples of the Jets disrupting Brady’s rhythm in the first game they played:

  1. http://www.screenr.com/Ki27
  2. http://www.screenr.com/ki27

3. The Pats are playing without Rob Gronkowski.

In the last game that the Jets and the Pats played the tight ends were the basis of the Pats offense. The Pats often spread out the offense and tried to find mismatches for Gronkowski and Hernandez. This is what their offense often looked like: http://www.screenr.com/Ei27. The tight ends accounted for more then half of Brady’s passing yards in that game. However, tonight Gronowski is out and Hernandez is banged up. On defense, the Jets can put Cromartie on Lloyd and double team Welker, and this will leave the Brady without many places to go.

— Post courtesy of Jack Sitt

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