Fantasy Football Week 6 – According to Statistics, Surveys Are Either Accurate or Not

By M3Swagger

Most fantasy football owners have a go-to source – a website chock full of stats that claims to have the most reliable information. Most have several and conduct personal surveys of which information suits them best. They make reluctant decisions based on the expertise of others. Remember, it is your team and you call the shots.

For example, there is a belief that if your team has more players in a home environment, the odds are in your favor that they will score higher and, consequently, so will you. It is safe to assert that home field advantage is real in fantasy.

That statement IS fantasy. It seems logical and may have statistical support, but if you find yourself with an entire roster playing on the road, don’t call it quits. Trust your ability to find the best matchups. I cite a survey by SwaggerMetrics*, which favors matchup over location by a margin of 100% to 0%.

As usual, injuries have taken a toll on rosters and the week 6 waiver wire.

A year ago, while looking at the digitized image of Peyton Hillis on the cover of your Madden 2011 game, would you ever expect to be leaving him unclaimed while considering the likes of the Colts’

Vick Ballard (who will start in place of the injured Donnie Brown) or the Packers’ Alex Green (in for the injured Cedric Benson)? Odds are strong that you would find stats that favor Hillis over both of those running backs to this day. That is where your logic takes over.

Brandon Gibson may be thrust into the spotlight as the Rams’ top receiver with the injury to Danny Amendola. The Rams are at the Dolphins this week and he’s worth a one- to four-game gamble, as are the afore-mentioned Ballard and Green. Ballard is more likely to enjoy success as he faces the Jets while Green is up against the Texans.

If you had Cardinals running back Ryan Williams on your roster, then you also lost him to the injured reserve list. This means he will have about three fewer fantasy points per week the rest of the season than he’s been supplying.

If you previously had Beanie Wells on your roster and have some strange draw to the Cardinals, then your next choices are LaRod Stephens-Howling, William Powell or Alfonso Smith. But if you really want a Cards’ running back, don’t. Just don’t. Stay away, even in a favorable matchup week against the Bills.

The Johnson Watch star of the week (realizing that Chris has already played and put up decent stats against the Steelers), is Andre. He and the Texans will have to put up bigger numbers to outscore the Packers. The return to scoring prominence by Calvin is anticipated against the Eagles, even if it is an away game. And has anyone seen Stevie? His team is in a lull, but he and they will have their opportunities soon; just not this week.

The Dream Team for week 6: any Falcons (QB Matt Ryan, WR Roddy White and K Matt Bryant). They are worth starting against a sketchy Raiders defense. Running backs due for a good day are LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles, A.J. Green at another receiver, Eric Decker in the flex position, Vernon Davis at TE, and the Vikings’ defense.

When in doubt, apply your own version of SwaggerMetrics* for a completely proper perspective.

* SwaggerMetrics is based on polling of M3Swagger by M3Swagger. There is a 100% margin of error.


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