I’ve given you the 10 most controversial fantasy players of 2012.
I’ve even given you a 2012 fantasy draft primer.
I will attempt now to find where the fantasy points will be disappointing.
Here are 7 fantasy selections to avoid overdrafting in 2012, but – as parity increases – it’s hard to find any real disasters.
1. Panthers QB Cam Newton. He will make a great leap in his second year, but – like Rob Gronkowski – is going to go up to fifteen spots too early (I have him ranked as my #16 prospect overall). If you want to see why he’s overrated from a real football standpoint, this article is really solid. He’s truly on track to be one of the best: his Panthers scored 406 points (5th in the league) while Manning’s 1998 Colts scored 310 (19th), Roethlisberger’s 2004 Steelers (he started 13 games) scored 372 (11th), Flacco’s 2008 Ravens scored 385 (11th), and Ryan’s 2008 Falcons scored 391 (10th).
2. Redskins QB Robert Griffin III. The truth is, I don’t think it’s hype at all. I think he’s already a good QB. Yet, a lot of fantasy owners – many of whom have never had a dynamic athlete at QB – are gonna reach on him, when Schaub, Alex Smith, Matt Flynn and Philip Rivers are on the board and are better options for this year.
3. Broncos RB Willis McGahee. He’s a name, like many others on this list. Unfortunately, the Broncos to get are Manning, Decker and/or maybe Thomas. They will be a passing team, and rookie RB Ronnie Hillman has a shot to make an impact as well.
4. Steelers D/ST. I think the Steelers had the best draft of anyone. I still think the playoff game against the Broncos was an anomaly for Dick Lebeau, and that he can still coach. Yet, I think this defense is in transition. They are my #5 D/ST right now (behind the Texans, Ravens, 49ers, and Cowboys), still totally draftable (much more favorable schedule than the superior but #6-ranked Bears defense) but in some leagues, based on reputation, they’ll be the #1 defense off the board.
5. Bengals RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Jay Gruden’s offense is based on creating mismatches, and I think Bernard Scott and Dan Herron will be used frequently as they are superior receivers to Green-Ellis. Green-Ellis may get those similar red zone carries he got in New England, but I can see Gresham, Sanu, and Green all getting play-action TDs, too. Don’t fall for the 24 rushing TDs over the last two seasons.
6. Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez. Many fantasy owners make the mistake of forgetting about tight end, then they go with the biggest name. Tony Gonzalez, 4th in fantasy points among TE’s last season, has been fantastically reliable and has the best stats of any tight end ever (1149 receptions, 13338 yards, 95 TDs). Yet, if you don’t get Graham, Gronkowski, Gates, Witten or Hernandez, I think you should look at Jermichael Finley, Dustin Keller, Greg Olsen, Vernon Davis, and Fred Davis in that order before Gonzalez. Those players are benefiting from their offenses becoming more wide open (Jets, 49ers) or their targets going up and their quarterback improving (Shockey leaving Panthers, Cam in year two). Tony’s targets will go down now that Julio Jones is healthy and had a full off-season.
7. Broncos TE Jacob Tamme. Reports are that him and Joel Dreessen are neck and neck (no pun intended, Peyton) for the #1 job. Many will just take Tamme because of the prior experience with Manning. I’ll be watching Manning’s limited preseason reps to see who he begins targeting most.
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