Advanced NFL Stats did a very quick study about which teams have the most success in the run and which teams have the most success with the pass and which teams are most balanced and unbalanced. Let’s take a look at the chart for the Rams and then we can go into more detail below.
|Team||Pass %||Pass EPA/P||Run EPA/P||Tot EPA||Split|
(Per ANS… “all data is limited to plays that occur when the offense’s win probability (WP) is between 0.15 and 0.85. This excludes situations in which a team is either well ahead or behind, forcing a pass- or run-heavy strategy mix.”)
So, if you look at the table. The Rams pass the ball 3% less than average in the NFL. Their Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/P) through the pass game is terrible, WORST in the league and .27 per PLAY below average. Keep in mind that 100 positive EPA wins a game and you can see how much the Rams have been hurting themselves when they have been attempting to pass the ball.
However, the Rams running EPA/P is slightly above average, which means that in the Split column, the Rams are the team in the NFL with the biggest split between their good running game and their bad passing game in the NFL. Other teams have larger splits in the opposite direction, but the Rams are not the best rushing team in the NFL, but they have the largest gulf between running and passing.
This means that going forward, when the Rams are looking for a play, they should go to their run game first and foremost. (So, maybe the playcalls on 3rd and 4th and 1 two weeks ago were the right calls!?)