Jaguars Gab NFL Week 11 Preview – Jacksonville at Cleveland

WHEN THE JAGUARS HAVE THE BALL

Rookie quarterback Gabbert, the 10th overall pick in last April’s draft recorded his first win as starter on the road last week and has thrown a touchdown pass in six of seven starts. Jones-Drew posted his third 100-yard rushing game of the season against the Colts has rushed for at least 80 yards in eight of nine games in 2011. He has 215 rushing yards in his past two matchups against the Browns and averages 94.7 rushing yards per game since 2010, second-best in the NFL behind Houston’s Arian Foster (98.2) over that span. Jones-Drew (854 rushing yards) needs 146 yards to reach 1,000 for the third consecutive season. Wide receiver Mike Thomas had a touchdown catch in Jacksonville’s win over the Browns last season, while counterpart Jarrett Dillard posted his first career touchdown catch last week. Tight end Marcedes Lewis needs three catches to join Kyle Brady (241) as the only Jaguar tight ends with 200 career receptions. Lewis had 66 receiving yards and a touchdown in last year’s game against Cleveland.

For the Cleveland defense, linebacker Scott Fujita registered his first interception of the season last week. Rookie lineman Phil Taylor, the team’s first-round choice in the 2011 draft, has two sacks in the past three games, while cornerback Joe Haden had an interception in his only meeting with the Jaguars in 2010.

Statistically speaking, Jacksonville is second-to-last in scoring offense (12.8 ppg), last in both total yards (243.6 ypg) and passing yards (122.1 ypg) and 11th in rushing yards (121.4 ypg). On defense, Cleveland is 11th in points allowed (20.3 ppg), sixth in total yards allowed (306.1 ypg), first in pass defense (163.3 ypg) and 30th against the run (142.8 ypg).

WHEN THE BROWNS HAVE THE BALL

Cleveland quarterback Colt McCoy had a season-best 97.5 passer rating last week and in five career starts in November, has completed 83-of-127 passes (65.4 percent) for 984 yards with three touchdowns, two interceptions and a 90.1 rating. Running back Chris Ogbonnaya had a career-best 90 rush yards against the Rams and figures to see plenty of carries again this week with usual bell- cow Peyton Hillis (hamstring) and second-year pro Montario Hardesty (calf) still out with injuries. Tight end Benjamin Watson needs four catches to reach 100 with the Browns, while rookie wide receiver Greg Little — a second-round selection in this past draft — had a career-best 84 receiving yards last week and tied a career-high with six catches. Little ranks second in the NFL among rookies with 37 receptions, trailing only Cincinnati’s A.J. Green (41). Wide receiver Joshua Cribbs has two touchdown catches in his past three games.

On the Jacksonville defense, linebacker Paul Posluszny posted his first interception since December of 2009 last week, while Mincey had a career-high 2 1/2 sacks against the Colts and has 3 1/2 over his past three games. Cornerback Drew Coleman has two interceptions in his last three outings.

By the numbers, Cleveland’s offense is 29th in scoring (14.6 ppg), 30th in total yards (294.1 ypg), 24th in passing (207.1 ypg) and 30th in rushing (87.0 ypg). On defense, the Jaguars are sixth in points allowed (18.4 ppg), fourth in yards allowed (296.4 ypg), fifth against the pass (189.3 ypg) and 14th against the run (107.1 ypg).

KEYS TO THE GAME

Jones-Drew figures to carry early and often against a Browns defense that’s 30th in the league against the run. That will also keep the heat off youngster Gabbert, whom Cleveland wants to force into obvious passing situations to have its best chance of success.

The absence of Mathis may open things up for University of Texas product McCoy, who’s shown flashes of being a gunslinger since taking over as starter last season. Cleveland needs to improve its offensive production to put its current losing streak to an end.

Was Jacksonville’s win at Indianapolis merely the product of a poor opponent, or have the Jaguars actually turned the corner towards becoming a quality road team? With good defense and solid running game against an anemic foe, it could be the latter.

Prediction – When all else fails, go with the team that’s got the best player. In this case, it’s probably Jones-Drew. Add in a superior defense as well, even without Mathis, and Jacksonville seems to have the edge. Assuming they control the clock and limit mistakes, there’s no reason the Jaguars’ road streak shouldn’t go to two straight. Jaguars 17 Browns 14


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