Some Gambling Thoughts and Picks for Week Two


Early in the week, I considered penning an article on the woes of our O-Line, but, when I read the avalanche of negative stories, thought I’d avoid “piling on.”
So, here goes…

Gambling thoughts for Week 2

Number one, I don’t see anything which appears to me a lock (versus the spread) this week. Therefore, if I do place a wager, it will be beneath 10% of my balance, which is currently $11k after winning a “dime” ($1k) on Minnesota @ Cleveland last week, which I believed was a “lock.” So, we’re working on the “book’s” money now.

My top four picks for the week in ascending order are:

4. Miami (+3) at home versus the Colts
3. Detroit (+10) at home versus the Vikings
2. Arizonza (+3) at Jacksonville
1. New Orleans (pick ’em-Caesar’s) at Philadelphia

Following my guidelines, I never, ever bet more than three games and normally, either zero or one during the regular season. So, pick four is out. Number three: I never wager on mediocre teams, so, it’s out. Number two, Arizona at the Jaguars, I frankly am iffy on, so, I’m not betting on it…However, my number one selection, is taking the Saints to win at Philadelphia. Mind you, it is NOT a lock. I repeat, it is NOT a lock. How strongly do I feel about it? Exactly a “nick” (nickel or $500). Which is half my winnings from last week.

Let me explain to you why I like the Saints…

Let’s go over the injury report for both teams:

The Saints:
1. J. Brown, starting LT-hip-out
2. D. Dinkins, 3rd TE-foot-out
3. K. Clancy, starting DT-knee-questionable
4. Pierre Thomas, 2nd RB-knee-questionable
The next five players are all probable (75% they will play)
5. Bushrod, 2nd LT
6. R. Harper, starting SS
7. T. Porter, starting LCB
8. J. Shockey, starting TE
9. U. Young, 2nd FS

Now, let’s briefly analyze the injuries. Brown the left tackle being out, bothers me. That’s the blind-side for Drew Brees. This could be a problem for the Saints. Clancy, starting defensive tackle could also be problematic. He should play, but, would be limited in the number of snaps he could play.

Pierre Thomas being dinged (knee) could also be a problem. As Reggie Bush is one of the smallest and weakest of all 32 starting RBs in the NFL…it leads me to believe you’re going to see a diminished rushing game and Mike Bell should get 8-12 running chances. Let’s face it, Reggie Bush is really no more than a second string running back…Since Jammal Brown is out at left tackle, back-up Jermon Bushrod will start and he has a dinged-up leg. Shockey seems to constantly be on the injury report, but, is expected to play and start.

The Eagles:
1. Shawn Andrews,starting all-pro RT, IR
2. Stewart Bradley, starting LB, IR
3. C. Ingram, TE, IR
4. Q. Demps, S-out
5. T. Herremans, starting LG-out
6. J. Mays, 2nd LB-out
7. D. McNabb, QB-doubtful, didn’t practice all week
8. V. Abiamini, DE-questionable
The next five players are all probable:
9. K. Curtis, WR
10.K. Dunlap, 2nd LT
11.D. Jackson, WR
12.M. Jean-Gilles, 2nd RG
13.W. Justice, RT

Three key players on IR. Main issue is that McNabb is doubtful he will play. He is their offensive “stud hoss.” Kevin Kolb will likely make his first NFL start against a revitalized Saints defense who had three picks last week versus the improving Lions. Also, a problem for the Eagles is their starting LG, Herremans, is out.
Philly has a handful of other key players dinged-up.

As things currently stand, let’s compare the two teams, based on my analysis…
Rushing offense:Advantage Eagles
Passing offense:Large advantage Saints
Rushing defense:Advantage Eagles
Passing Defense:Advantage Saints (I’m assuming Kolb starts, okay)
Special Teams:Eagles
Intangibles:Advantage Saints

Guess what Andy Reid’s record is in home openers? Four wins and six losses.

Weather report, 5-7 mph wind, 75 degrees F and sunny. Advantage Saints.

The Saints should win this game, unless their back-up LT gives up a big sack on Brees, forcing a fumble, which the Eagles run back for a TD and the Eagles special teams dramatically outplays the Saints ST. Both of these things could happen. If they do, the Eagles will be victorious. Otherwise, I like the Saints by 27-24…

My best guess of the probability of a Saints victory is 62%.

I’m going “nick” on the Saints to win (pick ’em).

Lastly, remember, do your own research. Play your own hunches. But, do it intelligently. This game is far from a lock…


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