Fantasy Football Prediction: Chicago Bears Running Back

Bears KJones Football
Before I embark on the lengthy prediction process, I must comment on yesterday’s big news. In case you were in a cave with sound canceling headphones playing death metal, you might have heard that Brett Favre signed with The Vikings. Earlier, I wrote a detailed analysis on the choices at QB and figure it’s a good time to bring that back up. For those too lazy to click, I basically say that while Brett Favre gives a slight advantage to the team over the other options, it does not make them much better.

Now, with that behind me, I’d like to delve into what will become a regular series in the offseason…. Prediction Wednesday!. Every Wednesday from now until the season starts, I will be predicting the statistics and record of the Chicago Bears and their different players.

I would like to say that in doing this, I will take an honest look at the team and it’s components and make a realistic prediction. I will try to see the team for what it is and not what I hope it to be.

Running Backs:
Matt Forte
Rushing: 1385 yards 4.8 Avg
Receiving: 545 yards
Total Yards 1930 Yards
Touchdowns: 18 (13 Rushing, 5 Receiving)

Kevin Jones
Rushing: 362 yards 4.6 Avg
Receving: 105 Yards
Total Yards: 467 Yards
Touchdowns: 3 (All Rushing)

Garret Wolfe
Rushing: 205 Yards 4.1 Avg
Receiving: 115 Yards
Total Yards: 320 Yards
Touchdowns: 1 TD (Rushing)

Rushing Attempts
2008: 384
2009: 418

All in all, I think that Matt Forte will be a stud next year with Jones and Wolfe being capable backups for him. The backfield will see 34 more carries than last year (a little more than 2 more per game) because the team will be winning late in more games this year. Forte’s carries will go down but his yards are going to go up. Now that defenses aren’t going to be putting eight or nine in the box, Forte will have more room to run. Not too mention, with a lack of an elite receiving core, Cutler will check down to Forte more and his receiving yards will see an uptick.

There you go folks. The method to my madness was simple. I looked at the schedule for the 2009 season and looked at the run defenses from last year and kept in mind any offseason upgrades and made game by game predictions. For those wondering, I think Matt Forte will again have his best running day against the St. Louis Rams. I’ll see you next Wednesday where I’ll predict the rest of the offense.


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