The media has inundated us with Brett Favre over the last month. Everyday I read through the NFL news pages and each one has a Brett Favre story. This Just In!: Brett Favre was seen wearing a purple polo! , Brett Favre sneezed into his bicep, is he ok?, Favre accidently texts “honey, can you bring home some milk?!” to the media, will he drink it?! etc etc.
What has gone under analyzed is, would Favre be a big upgrade over the current QBs Minnesota has? Sure he’d sell more tickets but would he win more ball games? I take a look at the numbers and intangables of each quarterback, to see who the best option is for the Vikings.
The part-time starter for the Minnesota Vikings last year, Jackson has shown flashes of brilliance. He finished the year with 9 touchdowns, 2 interceptions in 6 games. Jackson is a low risk, low reward type of QB. He thrives on quick, short passes and rarelystreches the field.
He finished with a 95.4 QB rating and shined down the stretch against the Lions, Cardinals, and Falcons in Weeks 14,15, and 16. Those three games his rating was near 100 or higher. What I look at in a starter though is when the big games come. Those moments where you need to take your team on your shoulders and win.
In Jackson’s case that moment was his first playoff start against the Eagles. His QB rating, 45.4, tells us he failed. In the second half, Adrian Peterson was shut down and touched the ball only 8 times. With the fate of the Vikings on him, Jackson through a pick 6 right before half-time down by 2 and looked absolutely lost in the 4th quarter.
Houston fans have dubbed him Sage RosenCopter because of a week 5 loss to the Colts. The scene plays out like this, the Texans are up 27-17 with a little under four minutes left. The Texans are on the Colts 40, 3 and 8.
If they don’t convert, they can punt the ball and pin Manning and Co. Instead Rosenfels leaps for the first down and gets spun like a helicopter and fumbles the ball. Indy takes the ball to the house bringing the score to 27-24 Houston. On the Texans nextpossesion with 2:50 left in the game, Rosenfels fumbles the ball and Indy recovers in their own territory. The score and take the lead, 31-27. Luckily, Houston still has a chance and gets the ball at around mid-field with :50 left and proceeds to throw an INT with no reciever in sight.
This was a game against a division rival, and Sage gift wraps a win for The Colts. Rosenfels is a better in his yards per completion (8.2 vs. Jackson’s 7.1) and can throw for more yards (most yards in a game is 294, Jackson 239).
But Rosenfels has 6 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. I will dub this choice as the high risk, middle reward kind. Remember, Rosenfels was working with arguably the best receiver in the AFC in Andre Johnson, what will he do with Berrian?
We’ve all seen him do the amazing. We’ve all cringed when we saw a sure sack of Brett turn into a 40-yard TD. But we’ve also seen the same guy go 2-6 against us in theLovie Smith era. From 2005-2007 Favre has thrown 2 TDs and 13 Ints against the Bears. He has also thrown at least two ints in every game except the New Years Eve one in 2006 when the Bears had everything locked up. He has been flat out terrible against us.
Against the rest of the league, he still shows he has some gas in the tank. But over the last two seasons, you can see that a full 16 games is too much for him. This last year, the Jets were as good as locked into a playoff spot whenFavre proceeded to tank his last 5 games. After starting out well ratings wise, in his final 5 games his rating was 60.9, 60.8, 61.4, 48.7 and finally 45.1. The last game against the Dolphins was a sure sign of how bad he had gotten. He threw 1 TD and 3 interceptions included one that went back for a TD.
If you look back on the big games in the last few seasons, Favre throws terrible game losing interceptions. In overtime against the NY Giants for a spot in the Super Bowl Favre threw a ball that even my Packer fan friends said was just idiotic. Favre also did not throw for 300 yards in a game last season and had a average yards per completion at 6.7, lower than both Jackson and Rosenfels.
At this time, after looking at the data, I would have to say that Brett Favre is the Vikings best option, but not by much. Jackson’s dink and dunk style of play does not fit with the “more speed than Nascar” Vikings and Rosenfels makes too many mistakes to warrant more than a back up role. Favre has the experience and moxy to potentially take this team far.
I would be concerned, if I were a Viking fan about playing 4 games against the Bears and Packers. The Bears have owned Favre in the recent past and The Packers D would be foaming at the mouth to bury “the Benidict Arnold”. No matter who is under center when the season begins, I know that our defense won’t be scared.