Site Editor Matt Loedes NFL Picks for Week 11

An 8-6 week last week brings my record to 69-73 for the season. Once again some big games this weekend, so let’s get to it with out picks for what should be an interesting week.

Denver at Atlanta (-6)

You have to love how the Falcons have turned this thing around in only one season. They are playing with a lot of heart right now, and it’s mostly due to the way that new coach Mike Smith has put this team in a position to win week in and week out. They take on a Broncos team coming off a crazy win last Thursday in Cleveland, but they have a banged up group and had to bring back the luggage thief – Tatum Bell this week to help out at RB. Look for the Falcons offense to put up a lot of points, and for their D to hold the Broncos in check. Atlanta 29 Denver 14

Oakland at Miami (-10.5)

The Raiders played better last week, but still can’t seem to do much of anything on offense, scoring just 6 points the last two weeks combined. Now they play a Dolphins team that is 4-4, and playing well with Chad Pennington and Ted Ginn Jr. making plays. Even if Darren McFadden plays, the Raiders won’t be able to do much against a much improved Fins D. Look for Miami to win and cover with relative ease. Miami 27 Oakland 7

Baltimore at New York Giants (-7)

A possible Super Bowl preview? Probably not, as the Ravens are good, but not good enough to go the distance in the tough AFC. They get a big measuring stick here, as the 8-1 Giants are still playing as well as any team in the league, and they seem to be the heavy favorite right now in the NFC. I like the Giants here at home, and think that with Eli Manning playing well and the running game doing what they are doing, they should win here and cover. NY Giants 20 Baltimore 10

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville

You have to think the Titans are going to lose at some point, but I think that this is not going to be the week. They played well in Chicago last week, and Kerry Collins showed that he can win a game when the running game does not perform up to it’s level. Now they travel to Jacksonville, and the Jags despite a win last week are not the team they have been in the past. Look for the running game to get back on track, and for the Titans to stay perfect at least one more week. Tennessee 23 Jacksonville 17

Chicago at Green Bay (-3.5)

A tough game to call, as both teams have had games where they look really good, then seem to look really bad. The Pack is at home, so with an emotional crowd on their side, and possibly Rex Grossman maybe starting again at QB. Even if Kyle Orton is back, he won’t be 100 percent, and the Pack will try to put pressure on him all day. The Pack will look to exploit a Bears secondary that gave up a lot of yards to Kerry Collins last week. Look for a good day for Aaron Rodgers and the Pack, as they beat the Bears at home. Green Bay 23 Chicago 14

Philadelphia (-9) at Cincinnati

The Eagles are smarting after a tough loss at home to the Giants last Sunday night, and should be able to take it out on the Bengals. Ryan Fitzpatrick played his best game of the year two weeks ago vs the Jags, but the Eagles have a lot more going on the defensive end, and should pressure him all day. With little going on in the running game, the Bengals need to pass a lot, but it will be tough vs the Eagles. On the other side, the Eagles should have more than enough to put up points. Philadelphia 30 Cincinnati 17

New Orleans (-5.5) at Kansas City

Tyler Thigpen has played well the past few weeks and could have pulled out wins the last two weeks for the Chiefs, who are playing better. For the Saints, they suffered a big loss in Atlanta last week, and had better start winning now or they are going to find themselves on the outside looking in for the playoffs. I think they will have their issues here, as they have yet to win on the road, and I like what Thigpen is doing enough to take a shot and call the upset for the Chiefs. Kansas City 24 New Orleans 23

Detroit at Carolina (-14)

While the Titans are looking for a perfect season, the Lions really look like a team that may actually go 0-16. This week it won’t get any easier, as they go to Carolina, where the Panthers at 7-2 have yet to lose at home. Jake Delhomme played awful vs the Raiders last week, but should rebound vs a Lions team that gives up plenty of yards to go around. Look for Carolina to do what they normally do – run the ball, pass with some success, and play tough D. It’ll be more than enough this week. Carolina 34 Detroit 16

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-3.5)

The Vikings got over a big hump last week vs the Packers, but now go on the road vs a Bucs team that is coming off a bye after a close win vs the Chiefs two weeks ago. This should be a very hard hitting physical game, and it’s going to be a game controlled by defense. The Bucs will feel a little more at ease at home, and should be able to throw on the Vikings. Minnesota needs to keep getting the ball to Adrian Peterson, but running on the Bucs will be a test. Tampa Bay 17 Minnesota 10

St.Louis at San Francisco (-6)

A great spot for Mike Singletary to get his first win as a head coach, as the Niners play their rivals at home. The Rams were spanked every which way by the Jets last week, and it looks like the honeymoon with Jim Haslett is all by over. San Fran looked a lot better with Shaun Hill at QB last week, and they should be able to run and pass on a Rams team that was beat before the kickoff last Sunday. Niners win and Singletary keeps his pants on. San Francisco 28 St.Louis 13

Arizona (-3) at Seattle

The Cards look like a true contender in the NFC, and were able to overcome an early deficit to the Niners and come back for a big win. This week should be another easy road win, as the Hawks played hard last week, but just don’t have the players to contend in the NFC. Look for Kurt Warner and the Cards to put up a lot of offense, and for them to start to look towards a playoff birth in the NFC. Arizona 27 Seattle 10

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-5)

What Chargers team is going to show up? They have been so inconsistent this season, and on the road they have lost some big games and have a very tough game lining up here. The Steelers are going to be ticked after giving the Colts the game last week with couple of bad picks by Big Ben. He is getting healthy, as is Willie Parker, which means trouble for the Chargers. The Steelers bounce back in a big way. Pittsburgh 31 San Diego 20

Dallas (-1.5) at Washington

This seems like a werid line to me. The Redskins have a better record, are playing at home, and have already beaten the Cowboys. For some reason, just because they feel that Tony Romo is going to try and get back in the lineup, the Cowboys wil be just fine. I don’t buy it. Look for the Skins to throw often on the Cowboys, and while they will have some issues without Clinton Portis, they should be able to get back to winning after the Steelers loss two weeks ago. I have my doubts still about the Cowboys. Washington 27 Dallas 20

Monday Night:

Cleveland at Buffalo (-5)

The Browns have had to fight the “quitter” label all week, and now they have to go to Buffalo for a tough Monday night game against a none to happy Bills team. Buffalo has lost three in a row, all to AFC East teams. They should get back on track here, and should be able to run and throw against a Browns D that has given up 34 and 37 yards the past two weeks. Look for Trent Edwards and the Bills to rebound nicely at home. Buffalo 27 Cleveland 17

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