Site Editor Matt Loede’s NFL Picks for Week 4

It was a tough week three with the point spreads, as I went just 6-10, and now sit at 25-21 on the season. Last week was the toughest week and my worst by far after three, and now today I am out for revenge. Some teams on bye, so we’ll see if the lack of games can help my record.

Denver (-9) at Kansas City

I really can’t see myself taking the Chiefs much at all this season. Damon Huard gets the start this week at QB, but does it really matter? Yes, the Broncos could really be 1-2 if the refs called things right, but at the end of the year, no one will know the difference. Another big game for Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and company, while the Chiefs continue to reach for that top three pick in the 09 draft. Denver 31 Kansas City 14

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-3.5)

The Battle of Ohio is more like the battle for a win. Both these teams, who had high hopes, are 0-3, and are going to do whatever it takes to try and get a win. Cincy showed me something last week vs the Giants, while the Browns showed me that they are headed for a 5-6 win season with numerous changes coming week in and week out. Look for Carson Palmer and his wide outs to have a big day. For the Browns, unreal that they will be 0-4. Cincinnati 23 Cleveland 17

Houston at Jacksonville (-7)

Seems like the Jags got that running game on track last week in Indy, and that does not bode well for the Texans, who are simply trying to get back to normal after a strange first three weeks of the season. I like the Jags to follow their usual gameplan of winning – sound defense, run the ball a lot, David Garrard be mistake free. He hasn’t this year, but will in this one. The Texans can look to the past for success against J-Ville, but have too much against them to win here. Jacksonville 24 Houston 10

Arizona at New York Jets (-1.5)

Brett Favre is still not on the same page with his offense, and that has to concern Jets fans. Monday night they had an early lead, but really were never in the game and were run over by the Chargers. I like what the Cards did this week, which was stay East and practice for the game in the East instead of go home and have to come back after their loss to the Skins last week. I think the Cards are playing better, and will send the Jets to 1-3 with a big road win. Arizona 21 New York Jets 16

San Francisco at New Orleans (-5)

The Saints showed heart coming from 18 down, but should have been able to finish off the Broncos last week in Denver. The Niners beat up the awful Lions, and are showing offensive firepower for the first time in a few years. This could be a shootout, as both teams will throw a lot, yet have good backs to turn to in the running game as well. The Saints are banged up with no Jeremy Shockey or Marques Colston, but they have enough weapons to take care of business at home. New Orleans 34 San Francisco 28

Atlanta at Carolina (-7)

The young Falcons are like two-face from Batman, good at home, not so good on the road. I expect that trend to rear its head again here, as the Panthers will look to put last weeks setback vs Minnesota behind them. They had a 10-0 lead, only to fall in the end 20-10. Jake Delhomme will look often to Steve Smith, and the running game will get back to its early form after a down game vs the Vikings. This is a big game for both, but the Panthers are eager to show they are for real. Carolina 23 Atlanta 13

Minnesota at Tennessee (-3)

This seems like a sucker bet. The Titans are really good at home, and just seem to have it all together vs teams that have lackluster offenses, and I think the Vikings qualify for that. Yes, Adrian Peterson will play, but he’s still not 100 percent. Look for this to be a low scoring game, as the Titans D will dominate and make for a long day for Gus Frerotte and the Vikings offense, who used big plays last week to come back vs the Panthers. Titans in a snoozer. Tennessee 16 Minnesota 9

Green Bay at Tampa Bay (-1)

It’s a wonder that Brian Griese is even able to lift his arm after last weeks game vs the Bears. His play was a big spark, and at home vs the Pack he should haev some success again. The Packers though are a very solid team, and are smarting a bit after being beat up by the Cowboys at home last Sunday night. Look for Aaron Rodgers to use his legs to avoid the Bucs pass defense, and for the run game to get on track that makes them a complete team. Green Bay 20 Tampa Bay 17

Buffalo (-8) at St.Louis

The Bills have never been 4-0…ever. They are laying a whopping 8 vs a Rams team that is the worst in the league, BUT, is looking for a spark as they are making the switch to Trent Green. For Scott Linehan to make that switch shows just how lost this team is. The only hope for the Rams is to create a bunch of turnovers, get Steven Jackson to go off, and have Green look like the player he was 4-5 years ago. Not going to happen. Buffalo 27 St.Louis 13

San Diego (-7.5) at Oakland

The offense for the Chargers finally came to life in a big way on Monday night, as Philip Rivers threw three TD’s, but the bigger key was the ability to hand the ball off to L.T. 20+ times and for two scores. The Chargers and Tomlinson always feast on the Raiders, and that will be the case here. Look for the Raiders to play hard, like they did last week vs the Bills, but they don’t have the horses to keep up with the high powered Bolts. San Diego 34 Oakland 21

Washington at Dallas (-11)

It’s the final game between these two in Big D, and the Cowboys want to go out with a bang vs their rival, and they should. Tony Romo and that Cowboys offense looks great, and with no Jason Taylor, the Skins D could be in for a REALLY long afternoon. Jason Campbell and the Skins offense is going to have to score a lot to keep them in the game, and while they are playing a lot better than week one when they fell to the Giants, the Cowboys have way too much for the Skins to hang around. Dallas 29 Washington 14

Philadelphia (-3) at Chicago

By all accounts the Bears should be 3-0. They beat the Colts, and had double-digit fourth quarter leads vs the Panthers and Bucs, only to lose both. Now they come up against the Eagles, who can score, but also can play defense. It’s time to see the real Bears and what they can do. While I think the Eagles have the advantage in many areas, the Bears will show up and play hard. Brian Westbrook is going to be less than 100 percent, and I think that is going to be a huge key. Something tells me the Bears get it done, they had better or the year may start to spiral out of control. Chicago 19 Philadelphia 16

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5.5)

I am ready to see the Ravens play a team a bit better than the 0-3 Browns and Bengals. They will get that test Monday night vs a Steelers team that is banged up with no Willie Parker and Casey Hampton. I go back to last season when in week four the Steelers were all beaten up vs the Seahawks at home, and while no one thought they would win – they shut out Seattle 21-0. I like the Steelers D to create at least one score vs rookie Joe Flacco, and look for Ben Roethlisberger to grind out some plays to get the job done to move to 3-1. Pittsburgh 17 Baltimore 13

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